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When scanning the papers last week, BP was surprised to learn that two of Thailand’s major dams, Bhumibol Dam and Sirikit Dam, were releasing water after being 97% and 99% full respectively. The Bangkok Post on October 6: Increased water discharges from the Bhumibol Dam in Tak have threatened to add flood woes to provinces downstream, including Ayutthaya where a large number of industrial factories have been inundated since Tuesday. … The discharge rate at the Bhumibol Dam in Tak province has risen from 6 0 million cubic metres to 100 million cu m of water per day . The flow runs at about 1,200 cu m per second. The increasing discharge is meant to save the dam. The extra volume of water has worsened the flood situation downstream.

Original posts:
Why was so much water kept in the dams?

Why was so much water kept in the dams? – Part II

Residents of many provinces face imminent flooding – or the worsening of existing flooding – as massive amounts of water move towards their areas from parts further north. The run-off water is set to reach Bangkok between October 16 and 18, which is also the high-tide period.

“Floods will hit the capital for sure. It’s just a question of where,” Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute director Dr Royol Chitradon said yesterday.

Water management and drainage capacity would determine how serious the situation would be, he said.

According to the 24/7 Emergency Operations Centre for Floods, Storms and Landslides, pushing water out to sea will get much more difficult later this month because the seawater level is about to rise. The centre’s deputy director, Wiboon Sa-nguanpong, said that by the time the huge amount of water being released from the Bhumibol and Pasak Jolasid dams reaches the lower Central region late next week, the high-tide period will have already begun.

“Overflowing [of rivers] will likely worsen,” said Wiboon, who also heads the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department.

Located in Lop Buri, the Pasak Jolasid Dam has been holding water at 136 per cent of its normal storage level. As of press time, it was releasing 950 cubic metres of water per second.

Apart from Ayutthaya, the other provinces ordered to prepare for emergency evacuations are Ang Thong, Chai Nat, Chachoengsao, Lop Buri, Nakhon Sawan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Sing Buri and Uthai Thani.

Under an agreement reached at the National Flood Relief Centre’s meeting yesterday, the army will take over the job of protecting Ayutthaya, Lop Buri and Nakhon Sawan provinces from further damage.

Provincial governors have been charged with supervising the protection of other flooded provinces, and they will work closely with local police commanders, 191 police radio centre and the Royal Thai Police Office.

“During the next one or two days, it will be raining too. In fact, it looks set to pour down in many provinces in the Central region,” Wiboon said.

Located in Tak, Bhumibol Dam has reached 98 per cent of its capacity and is now releasing water, forcing people living downstream to struggle with flooding. In Ban Tak district, where floodwaters are about one metre deep, people in 42 villages have had to travel around by boat.

“This is the worst flooding in 52 years. It’s the worst since Bhumibol Dam was constructed,” Ban Tak district chief Thanin Wichitrakoon said. He believed the floods would continue for a few more days, as the dam had been forced to release water.

Elsewhere, residents of many provinces were bracing for more serious floods as run-off water from the upper part of the country raced towards their areas.

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut said that next Thursday or Friday, water would be flowing down the Chao Phraya River in Nakhon Sawan at a rate of between 4,500 and 5,500 cubic metres per second. The sheer scale of the water-flow rate means that more flooding was likely for those living along the river, he said.

Interior Ministry spokesman Pipatchau Paiboon said the governor of Nakhon Sawan had already been instructed to prepare residents for evacuation.

“Flooding will spread further in riverside provinces, starting with Nakhon Sawan and followed by Chai Nat,” Theera said. To date, flooding has hit 28 provinces and affected more than 2.6 million people. The disaster has killed 244 people and left three missing. It is estimated that floods have already ravaged 7.5 million rai of farmland. As many as 182 roads are impassable due to deep floodwater levels.

Floods have left 1,215 factories submerged, affecting more than 41,000 workers. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra yesterday described the situation as “critical” and said she was quite worried about the upcoming storms. Royal Irrigation Department director-general Chalit Damrongsak, said the water volume is much larger than during last year’s flooding.

Yingluck said that in flood-marooned areas, the urgent task was to deliver food. She instructed government agencies to co-ordinate with both private and public-sector organisations in their flood-relief operations.

Science Minister Plodprasob Surassawadee urged individuals and private firms to make their boats and vessels available for volunteer operations to push water out to sea.

BANGKOK: The Thai opposition Puea Thai party, backed by the exiled politician Thaksin Shinawatra, has won a large majority in a landslide election result.

The Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, conceded defeat late last night, saying Puea Thai will be able to form government.

The political novice Yingluck Shinawatra, 44, a younger sister of Mr Thaksin who was put forward to lead the opposition party, thanked voters while claiming victory after Mr Abhisit’s concession.

Speaking in a nervous voice, Ms Yingluck invited minor parties to join her in forming a government and promised to fulfil promises made during the election campaign.

The election is the first since a bloody crackdown against opposition activists in May last year killed 91 people.

One poll, by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, had the opposition winning 313 of 500 seats, while the Democrat party of Mr Abhisit would win 152 seats. A government exit poll had Puea Thai winning 280 seats, enough to form government.

Before the election, Red Shirt supporters, many of whom had occupied central Bangkok in April and May last year until they were violently expelled by the army, were confident that Ms Yingluck would become Thailand’s first female prime minister after Puea Thai vaulted ahead in polling.

The businesswoman is a younger sister of Mr Thaksin, a deeply divisive figure at the centre of the election who is living in self-imposed exile in Dubai.

Speaking from Dubai last night, he said the exit polls were indicating a victory margin bigger than he had expected.

Mr Thaksin, 61, is a telecoms tycoon who has been sentenced to two years’ jail for corruption.

He is expected to be pardoned in an amnesty and return to Thailand to take a central behind-the-scenes role for Puea Thai, which has strong support among the rural and urban poor. Mr Abhisit’s Democrats represent the old-money government and business elite who despise Mr Thaksin, who has been behind every election victory in the past decade.

Mr Abhisit said during the campaign the election would be ”the best opportunity to remove the poison of Thaksin from Thailand”.

During her campaign Ms Yingluck often described Mr Thaksin as her ”clone” and campaigned on the slogan: ”Thaksin thinks and Puea Thai does”.

Her slick, well-funded campaign promised to focus on uniting the country after six years of political turbulence.

More than 180,000 police guarded 90,000 polling centres as 35 million voters cast their ballots to fill 500 seats in parliament.

Puea Thai (For Thais) needed 260 or 270 seats to form government in its own right as ministers do not get a vote in parliament.

There is a danger the losing side will not accept the result, plunging the country back into violent turmoil, analysts have warned. Puea Thai’s expected landslide will test the army’s willingness to let the party govern five years after Mr Thaksin was ousted.

On the eve of the election the army chief, Prayuth Chan-ocha, dismissed rumours of a coup if Puea Thai won and asserted the military would remain neutral.

”Any government coming up has the right to take office,” he said. ”I have no problem accepting whatever comes.”

There have been unconfirmed reports the Thaksin camp and the military have been discussing some kind of accommodation.

The army removed Mr Thaksin from power in a 2006 coup.

Voters queued nervously at polling centres in Bangkok after a largely peaceful campaign where the rival parties made strikingly similar policies.

The main parties made extravagant promises such as sharply lifting the minimum wage, pensions for the elderly, computers for children, subsidies for rice, debt moratoriums and cash handouts the central bank said the economy could not afford.

Adding to tensions was the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 83, who has been in and out of hospital for much of the past two years.

”We have lost our way and we are trying to find our way back,” Pichai Chuensuksawadi, editor-in-chief of The Bangkok Post, told The New York Times. ”Whoever comes in now must play a key role in keeping things calm.”

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